7 Furlong Races System and other betting ideas

7 Furlong Specialists

Rules:
1. Operate on all races run from 6 furlongs to 7 furlongs inclusive.
2. In each qualifying race, bet the shortest priced runner in the forecast odds betting market to have recorded two or more wins over the distance.
3. In races where two or more runners are equal shortest priced qualifiers there is no bet for that race.

Logic:
Being neither a sprint trip nor a mile, 7 furlongs is the distance over which the most potent specialists are to be found. In contrast to failed sprinters rising in distance and failed milers dropping in distance, 7 furlong specialists are made for the job.Forecast odds favourites who have never won over the distance before may be vulnerable against these specialists.

Against the short prices
Rules:
In any race where the forecast odds predicts an odds-on favourite, bet the second-named horse in the forcast odds list.

Logic:
Short-priced favourites win less often than they are given credit for, and as a betting medium, they offer little value in general terms. The true value in the race often lies with the runner which appears to hold the highest realistic chance of the remainder of the field. You can fine tune this by considering the price difference between the favourite and second favourite and likewise the margin of difference between the second favourite, your potential bet, and the third favourite.

Backing the best horses
Rules:
1. Bet to win on the horse with the highest official rating at each meeting.
2. When more than one horse shares the top official rating at a meeting, there will be no bet for that meeting.

Logic:
Superior class is often enough to pull a horse through, even when prevailing conditions may not be ideal. This trial will assess whether punters underestimate class, particularly when other factors may appear to be negative. The horses backed are all, according to the official handicapper, the best on view at their respective meetings.

Beaten favourites after a rest
Rules:
Bet any horse that was a beaten favourite in its last race, provided that it has a had a break of more than 30 days since then, and also provided that it has previously won over today's distance.
Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

Logic:
Having been expected to win on its last outing, but failing to do so, a horse that may not have given its true running has now been rested with a view to gaining compensation in a carefully chosen and suitable event, and when fit and ready to do so.
This is often a more suitable strategy than rushing a horse into attempting to gain quick compensation when conditions may not be ideal.
The qualifying criteria of at least one previous distance win should restrict the number of bets to an acceptable level, whilst also ensuring that today's race is a suitable one.

Beaten favourites with sights lowered
Rules:
Bet any horse that is competing for less prize money than on its previous run provided that it was a favourite or joint-favourite on that previous outing.
Lower prize money takes into account prize money for the winner only.
Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

Logic:
Lower prize money normally indicates a lower class or lesser quality race. If a horse attracted enough support to warrant favouritism in a better event, then it should have strong claims against lesser opposition.
This set of circumstances often indicates a retrieval mission, with connections attempting to recoup previous losses. An easier task is often chosen for the horse when this is the case.

Best horse is best-rated
Rules:
Bet any horse that is clear top on both Official Ratings and any two or more of the JSH Ratings.

Logic:
A horse that is clear top on Official Ratings is deemed by the official handicapper to be the best horse in the race. Meanwhile, JSH Ratings are class ratings which are adjusted according to a variety of contributory factors.
Qualifiers are therefore not only best in today's JSH Ratings, but are also the best horses in their races according to the official handicapper.

Big concessions
Rules:
In handicap races only, select the horse that is giving the biggest weight concession of the day (the largest weight differential between a top and a second-top weight). Should there be joint qualifiers there will be a bet on each.

Logic:
The horse at the top of the handicap is officially rated as being the best horse in the race. Therefore, the horse giving the biggest weight concession is also the horse with the biggest class advantage.

The effect of weight is often overstated, so the class advantage can often prove more effective than the penalty.

Big Race Press Selections

Rules:
1. Each day, locate the race with the highest winner's prize money. If there is more than one qualifying race, bets will be made in each.
2. Next, click on the tipsters' poll in that race, and consider their top selections.
3. Identify the runner with the most top selections.
4. If more than one runner has attracted the highest number of selections, there will be no bet for that particular race.

Logic:
Press correspondents tend to spend a lot more time and effort analysing the big race of the day than they do lesser events. From a newspaper's point of view, this makes sense for two reasons: firstly, the readership is likely to be more interested in the big race than in lesser events. Secondly, it makes a better subsequent headline to report the selection of a big race winner than that of a lesser event winner.

This trial will attempt to determine whether there is any value to be had in following the consensus of opinion of these correspondents in the races which attract their best efforts.

CD Winners Returning Fresh

Rules:
1. Identify all previous course/distance winners running today.
2. Select only those course/distance winners returning from a break of 100 days or more.
3. If there is more than one in the same race, there is no bet for that particular race.

Logic:
There is potential for obtaining value from betting runners returning from absences, mainly because punters are often discouraged from supporting them.

Given their proven suitability to conditions, previous course/distance winners returning from absences may have been placed to win first time back. The aim of this analysisis to determine whether these runners are underestimated in the market.

Classy 3YO handicappers
Rules:
In any 3YO handicap race, work down the race card from the top, and bet the first horse you come to which was placed first, second or third on its last run.
In the event of there being no qualifier by the time you are halfway down the card there is no bet.

Logic:
Three-year-olds at the top of the handicap are improving horses (as opposed to older top weights who may be declining, but are still at the top based on what they did a long time ago). The effect of weight is grossly overstated in most cases, so the official handicapper has saved us a lot of form study by telling us the best horses. We then just need to look for confirmation of current form.

Course/distance/jockey combinations
Rules:
1. Identify all previous course/distance winners running today.
2. Select only those winners that have been partnered by at least on one previous success by today's rider.
3. Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

Logic:
When a horse/rider partnership is familiar with a particular race track, they already know what is required and how it should be achieved. This applies even more so when the partnership has already scored over today's course and distance.
These potent combinations are often underestimated in the betting markets, going off at bigger prices than they should be on many occasions.

Developing horse/jockey partnerships
Rules:
1. The horse finished second on its latest outing.
2. The jockey riding that day was partnering the horse for the first time.
3. The same jockey rides again today.
4. Ignore any race in which there is more than one qualifier.

Logic:
A horse/jockey partnership can be more significant than some punters realise. Many horses have quirks or certain ways of running that are only fully appreciated by jockeys to have ridden the horse before.
If a new partnership was in action for the first time recently, the race would still be fresh in the jockey's mind. If the partnership went close to scoring on that first occasion, the experience gained could be enough for the jockey to get the horse home in front next time.

Favourites in big fields
Rules:
Each day, select the non-handicap race with the most runners.
In each qualifying race, bet the forecast odds favourite to win.
If there are two or more qualifying races, there is no bet.

Logic:
"The bigger the field the better the favourite" and, as in all old horse racing wisdom, there is an element of substance to it - this analysis will hopefully prove just how much.

Races with more runners tend to be committed hard run affairs as opposed to those with small fields, which often provide no early pace and no cover for the runners that need it.

Races with big fields are also much less competitive, on many occasions, than they first appear. They often contain many runners that have no realistic chance of winning. That applies much more so to non-handicap events, on which the system is based.